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Twins in '12 and RT's Whiff

January 24, 2012 1:43 PM

With the Winter Caravan underway, there's hope that baseball will arrive again on schedule this year. That's a relief. Seems like it's been a while since we've talked about baseball around here. So, here goes.

Who do you expect the 2012 Twins to be?

Michael Cuddyer. Jason Kubel. Joe Nathan. (I need a new favorite Twin.)

Jamey Carroll. Ryan Doumit. Josh Willingham. Joel Zumaya. (OK, but I'm not seeing a new favorite there.)

Concussions? "Progress." (A rather disquieting word to hear in that context.)

Bi-lateral legs? Apparently no longer weak. (Except for the new fiancee, of course.)

Offense? Basically flat. Defense? Basically flat. Pitching? Totally flat.

To wonder how the team might do this year, it's reasonable to wonder how they might have done last year without all the injuries, and use that to project a bit.

They ended 2011 about 150 points in winning percentage below expectations (conventional wisdom having them at about 87 wins, or .539, before last season started), notoriously coming away with only 63 wins.

But they weren't really a .389 team for the whole season. They were a .321 team for the first two months, a .611 team for the middle two, and a .241 team for the last two. (Yes, those middle two months were that good. I'm as surprised as you).

The rough start, though it was probably an anomaly, certainly doomed their season, but there was still hope at the All-Star break. The team actually peaked at .474, a scant five games under .500, on July 20, but they won only five of their next 17 games, culminating with a sweep at the hands of the White Sox in early August. It became obvious during those 17 games that this team would not be creating any miracles, and with that knowledge, the bottom dropped out.

July 22 - The Twins at their 2011 plateau

So, who were they really? Basically, they clawed their way to .460 on July 8, were at .461 at the All-Star break, and still in that region when that dropoff began (last above .450 on August 6). It appears in their record to be a solid plateau. So I think it's fair to say that's the team they really were without the big guns -- and still with some hope fueling them.

So starting with that, and seeing that the overall talent level is pretty even, what might be different this year?

First, I'm inclined to give them back 25 percentage points because injuries, though inevitable, are highly unlikely to be as bad as last year. That gets them to .486, which will have to represent the low end of their 2012 potential.

Next, we have to consider that Morneau is an unknown (so no guaranteed wins added back), Span is an unknown (so no guaranteed wins added back), and Mauer, though he will be back, sounds like he'll be out from behind the plate a fair amount to protect his knees.

I don't have to tell you this, but having Mauer behind the plate adds a level of confidence all around which translates directly into more wins. The pitchers pitch better, the fielders field better -- even the rooters in the stands root better. So the best-case scenario for the team concerning Mauer is that he catches 120 games and hits at a career pace. That could easily add back 50 points in winning percentage. But he's unlikely to get anywhere near that best case, mostly because the management will probably be overly cautious, so I'm cutting his addition back to 35 points.

That brings us to .521 (about 84-78) as the upper limit without a fully-recovered Morneau and Span. If there is a sudden synergy of recuperation (not out of the question), the upper limit might stretch a bit, but we can't really count on that.

Split the difference between that high and that low and you get an actual projection of .504 (roughly 82-80).

I know that it's a completely un-sabermetric approach, but that's all I've got. It simply leads me to think that humble expectations are the best strategy out at the Railyard this summer. (You'll still see me out there cheering, of course.)

Tear down Lee's for a football stadium? Sacrilege!

Football Fumes

The crystal ball is much clearer for the Vikings. And by that, I do not mean to say that they will suck next year, though it does seem pretty obvious. Nor do I mean that they'll be playing in the Metrodome, also a certainty.

I mean that the more things change in the stadium saga, the more they stay the same. (By the way, if you visit this site only when new articles are posted, you're missing 90% of the fun. The 1300+ comments on my previous post have covered quite a wide range of topics, many with great passion. And the main post somehow managed to stay relevant the whole time, despite about a dozen attempts on my part to come up with something more timely.)

Nothing has been solved, of course, and in some real respects the process has regressed. This is normal, but cries out for some scrutiny. Personally, I think the writing is on the wall for how the whole thing will end, but some people still think that the Vikings have more than one option.

Take, for example, the mayor of Minneapolis.

The Delusional Raymond Thomas?

Now, I like Mayor Rybak. He's been a pretty good mayor, a distinct improvement over his predecessor, and a steady hand on the wheel while navigating some rough financial seas. He has good energy, good (if sometimes a little goofy) ideas, and tends to avoid the dogma-filled shallowness which befalls many politicians these days. I especially like that when someone in the media asks him a question, he actually answers it. (More on that below.)

It's true that my property taxes have gone up about 60% since he took office, but I don't blame him for that. In fact, I think he's a primary reason they haven't gone up further. After the decade we've been through (with scathing LGA cuts from a singularly hostile administration in St. Paul), I'm convinced that things would be much worse for the city with a less skilled mayor. If anything, his skills may be somewhat wasted in a position with so little real authority. I think he might actually make a good Governor someday.

But everybody has blind spots, and every word he utters about the Vikings seems to expose more of his. He is, I think, the last person in town who does not recognize that the Metrodome site ("Downtown East" or "Industry Square" if you prefer) has been a failure since day one and would be no less a failure with a new stadium built in the same place.

Been there. Done that.

From the Downtown Council's 2025 Plan, a Metrodome "Revelopment" and a strong indication of where they think a new Vikings stadium should go.

The Vikings hate the Dome and its location, as well they should. And the neighborhood surrounding it (with the notable exceptions of the Star Tribune and Hubert's) wishes it weren't there. The infrastructure connections are incomplete and archaic, and it wouldn't actually save that much money or be that much faster to build on. When even the Downtown Council officially acknowledges this in vision documents, it's really time to let it go:

"...establish a major new residential district on and around the Metrodome site... The Metrodome site itself could become a small lake, surrounded by a leafy urban village of new homes, shops and ball fields that in essence, could link the campus to Downtown... Build a new Vikings stadium Downtown near Target Field and the primary transportation hub."

Lemon Tree, Very Pretty

Rybak also has come up with a financing option that sort of kind of sounds reasonable, but is just about as unlikely as the one up in Ramsey. There's no shortage of reasons, either.

For one thing, it's back-loaded (money only much later), meaning either the State's or the Vikings' contribution would have to be highly front-loaded (lots of money right now). That's just not going to happen.

It also requires vacating the charter amendment preventing the city from spending more than $10 million on a sports facility without a referendum. Not impossible, speaking legislatively, but it would face some very serious opposition from the same people who got that requirement passed in the first place.

It's one thing to simply bypass a creaky old default referendum requirement (i.e. Hennepin County for Target Field), but it's something quite different to bypass a referendum requirement which was actually created to prevent just what it would be bypassed for. Directly thwarting the will of the people isn't going to make anyone in St. Paul very popular. It would, in fact, make a whole lot of people with good lawyers hopping mad. Again, it's almost impossible to imagine this actually happening.

In addition, placing the stadium financing burden solely on the people of Minneapolis really isn't a good idea anyway. The base is too small, and too poor. Comparing this idea to the Target Field solution, the same problem comes up as did with Ramsey: The Hennepin County base is considerably larger and more affluent than the city of Minneapolis. (But, speaking of finding the right base, I'll go back to the best funding idea I've heard yet, which came from the other Twin Cities mayor, Chris Coleman: a teensie-weensy, teeny, tiny liquor tax throughout the state. Unfortunately, that's as unlikely as it is brilliant.)

Next, Rybak's plan robs Peter to pay Paul. The Convention Center is not going to simply go away when its bonds are retired. Repurposing this money now leaves a yawning chasm later which would have to be filled. It's hard to imagine either the City Council or the Legislature going for that.

And finally, while robbing Peter and paying Paul, the plan attempts to pay Mary as well. Tying funds for a shiny new stadium to renovation of a creaky old one (Target Center) creates a real mess, and ties the fate of something which is much-desired to something which is much-derided. Maybe people should want that (the Mayor says it will lower my aforementioned property taxes, but I'm skeptical), but the reality is that no one does.

Politically, it's also just plain dumb. I know that the numbers look smart on paper (if you believe them and can get past all the other hurdles I've just outlined), but it's a little like finding a pair of dirty old Timberwolves sweatsocks stuffed into the sleeve of a brand new Vikings sweatshirt. I mean, ewwww.

The fruit of this poor lemon is impossible to eat.

Ahh, Reasons

But I learned something last week that helped me understand Rybak's seemingly delusional bid -- which I hereby resolve to consider more political and perhaps wishful than delusional. Here's a clip of the mayor speaking to Tom Pelissero on 1500 ESPN last Tuesday (full show available here by selecting January 17):

Let me pull out the salient quotes:

Hennepin County was in negotiations with the Vikings for many, many months -- quietly, but doing it.

This is, believe it or not, something of a bombshell revelation. At the time, the media reported that the Vikings had spoken to Hennepin County as a potential partner, but the implication was that it was preliminary and casual. There is a very big difference between casual conversations and "many, many months" of quiet negotiations.

He goes on to say that everybody wanted the county to be the local partner, confirming what has long been suspected: When the Governor said, "Go find a site and a local partner," he really meant, "Go talk to Mike Opat."

The day (Hennepin) county pulled out -- and they pulled out very abruptly -- but the day they pulled out, we then came in with our Plan B.

The talks between Hennepin and the Vikings not only didn't end with a deal, but didn't end cordially. If I had to guess, based on what happened next, and this is pure speculation, the turn of events could most easily be explained by the Vikings dropping the AH plan onto Mike Opat's desk and saying, "Match this or we're going to the suburbs."

Whether it was that or something less dramatic we may never know. But the points to take away are that A) the Vikings knew Hennepin County was the most likely partner, and B) they didn't like either what they heard or the position this inevitability put them in.

But this was not something that was sprung on the Vikings. The Vikings had been in discussions with the Sports Facilities Commission for many months.

So, these quiet negotiations were not just with Hennepin.

Smartly, the Vikings were trying to create a bidding war of some sort. They were talking to everybody, quietly, testing waters, looking for the biggest sucke-- I mean best partner, and then trying to leverage it against the other players. This is illuminating, if not exactly shocking.

No surprise then that AH became the plan to beat. The Ramsey folks essentially gave the Vikings everything they could ever have hoped for. If you're the Wilfs at that point, you realize that if you somehow got the Ramsey plan passed it would be your absolute dream come true. And either way, it still could make for some pretty good leverage.

Only, it didn't. It was too delusional for words. (Well, almost. I've personally written about 7,500 words on the subject in the past three months.)

What's really interesting, then, is what Rybak did as Arden Hills rose and fell.

When the Vikings then said, this was in the spring, that they wanted to go to Arden Hills, we said, "We will stand back and give Arden Hills the ability, and Ramsey County the ability to move forward."

And I credit the people from Ramsey County for leading. And so, grudgingly, we stood back as there was a proposal to use tax dollars to move a business out of our city because we wanted to solve this friggin' thing that's gone on so long. And we did that.

When it became clear this fall that Ramsey County did not have the votes to get through the Legislature, and when we were asked by the Governor to come forward, we stepped forward.

I probably don't need to connect the dots, but here they are: Somebody whispered into Rybak's ear and said, "Be patient. Arden Hills will flame out. You'll get your turn." Whoever did that whispering probably also knew that the city of Minneapolis didn't stand a chance either, but that letting them take a turn would benefit the process in the long run (if only to get the Metrodome site vetted and rejected).

So sure enough, Rybak's moment came and he seized it. It looks a little like he gave a weak swing at a 90 MPH fast ball, but he gets credit for stepping into the box in the first place. He has much to gain by being a player, if even just for a short time, and almost nothing to lose.

In short, we've been watching a series of at bats, arranged as carefully as if Gardy were filling out a line up card. Put more plainly, it's political theater.

And everybody else, well almost everybody else, stepped off the stage so Rybak could have his moment.

A Streaker (Naked Greed)

Here's the problem: The Metrodome plan is only a tiny shade more plausible than Arden Hills. As such, it did not present the kind of leverage the Vikings need to get a better deal from Hennepin.

Enter Linden Avenue -- or what I will from now on refer to as the Basilica Site (BS for short).

You may remember that, for the longest time, no one knew just who brought this idea forward or why. But word around town is that the powers behind the Block E casino project were also behind the mysterious appearance of this potential stadium site. If true, it would sure make a lot of sense. But you need one more piece to make it fit together.

We've now seen it reported several times that Hennepin wants the Farmers Market site. This means that there is already a link between Hennepin financing and the FM land. You don't get the financing unless you take the site, and you don't get the site unless you take the financing. (This also explains why Rybak might have been unable to attach his financing plan to the FM site.)

But the Block E guys want their casino approved, and one way to make that considerably more likely is to become part of the financing for a Vikings stadium. But they're shut out with the FM site because of the existing link with Hennepin. They needed another site.

But that other site also became immediately attractive to the Vikings (who may or may not have any connection to the Block E guys) because it actually appeared to provide the necessary leverage with Hennepin. It does so by being more plausible than either the Metrodome or Arden Hills, while still farther from the existing infrastructure, and easier to build exclusive parking around. (I love those blissfully parking ramp-free renderings; hi-larious.)

Given the instant and completely predictable opposition from the Basilica community, it's unclear whether the Vikings actually thought they might be able to build a stadium there, or whether they just joined the rouse as a negotiating tactic. For their part, the Block E casino guys were probably just rolling the dice, realizing that you can still win even with the odds against you.

Either way, it doesn't matter. Mary Jo is formidable (and should be satisfied earlier rather than later), but having a guy in a clerical collar hold a press conference on the steps of a beautiful and beloved 100-year-old building to denounce your business strategy and vow to fight you with all of God's will (and lawyers) is a really, really bad thing. Forget the BS. It's total BS.

In short, swing and a miss! Strike three. So, we're back to the top of the order.

Loose Ends

You may be wondering whether Shakopee is really a player here or not.

In truth, I think they have a great site, and a nice potential synergy of entertainment options. Unlike AH, the Shakopee location is actually in the middle of somewhere.

Unfortunately, it appears that they are tying their bid to the racino idea, which makes it totally DOA. If they could team up with an existing casino, or find some other funding method, I think they could become serious contenders here. But as it is, not so much.

And while I was writing this post, Mark Dayton sent a letter to the Vikings saying that the Metrodome site is the only option for the 2012 session.

This doesn't actually change anything. A bad option is really no option. The Vikings won't go for it, and neither will the Legislature or the city of Minneapolis. Consensus is steadily building around the only really viable location.

In that regard and others, the landscape bears some distinct similarities to that in 2006, when TF was approved after the Hennepin County option sort of appeared out of nowhere and took the world by storm. (It was even an election year. Go figure.)

Should all the stars align, there is certainly a slight chance that Hennepin might reenter the fray this year, but it certainly wouldn't happen at the beginning of the session. And they won't enter at all unless there is a better-than-decent chance of getting their existing sales tax amended to include the Vikes.

Frankly, given all this TP nonsense, that doesn't seem very likely. More likely is that the Vikes will have to wait till next year, when the political landscape will most certainly have changed.

There could be a whole lot of "waiting till next year" going on around these parts in 2012...

Don't worry. Everything will be alright.

Comments


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NEW POST!!!!!!

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 1:45 PM by tk Secured User Highlight this comment 1

Good explanation of what's going on with the Vikings and their stadium quest. As I read that article, it made me all the more worried about the Vikings using Lester Bagley as their point man given his ineffectiveness and abrasive personality. To borrow a saying used elsewhere, "Bagley is always ready for war when the situation calls for a peace time general".

As for the Twins, I figure they'll finish 75-87 or so as long as injuries don't gut the team again. The big problem is the front office sees the remants of the recent division winning teams and thinks it can just move around a few pieces and get back in the pennant chase. After all, apart from Cuddy, the Twins at the start of the millenium had little in common with the Twins that entered Target Field in terms of personnel yet won all the same. Unfortunately the 2011 Twins can't be repaired with a simple fix up job. They need to gut the thing and start over. The longer they ignore reality, the longer and harder it will be to get the Twins back to their recent glory.

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 1:59 PM by Jorge Secured User Highlight this comment 2

I don't think the Twins will be the inept club from the first and last 2 months and they're certainly not the world beaters of June and July. Somewhere between 78-85 wins is where I see this team landing.

In years past that'd be plenty to stay in contention with the rest of the fodder in the AL Central but with the news that Price Fielder is joining Miggy and Delmon in the middle of the Tigers lineup it's tough to imagine meaningful games past the 1st weekend of september.

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 2:31 PM by jp Highlight this comment 3

Fielder to Tigers 9 Yrs/214 Mil. Atleast we will see some homeruns this year!

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 2:54 PM by JoJo Highlight this comment 4

The Detroit Tigers will be salivating over the thought of facing the Twins' "pitch to contact" pitchers...

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 3:04 PM by Mike (aka Mike) Highlight this comment 5

Holy crap Rick! You've been saving up, huh?

Glad to see a new post mid-winter. It's sort of like our own version of Punxsutawney Phil, a signal that spring is coming...hey, Rick's got a new post up! Baseball's on its way!

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 3:57 PM by theloniousjoe Secured User Highlight this comment 6

What can I say? I saw my shadow...

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM by Rick Secured User 7

Good write-up, Rick. I'll throw these tidbits out there:
I spoke briefly with a colleague who's a business owner in the downtown council group. His take on RT - the mayor would personally support any Minneapolis site, but is stuck between a county that has walked away from the issue, a fractured city council that does not like the BS or FM site, and a team that is constantly dissatisfied and looking to maximize bucks when it should be trying to bring together a deal. RT pushed the Dome because it's there, he thinks more city council members would support it, and, ultimately, he wants the Vikings to stay and stay in Mpls. My friend also thinks the business owners would prefer the FM site for development reasons but that there isn't anything approaching concrete consensus or hard opinion on that.

My lingering question: Where does the STATE money come from? Racino? No go. A tax increase? Ha! E-pulltabs?? Is that really the only potentially viable option? And is it even viable?

Twins: HUGE unknowns. To have any chance of being competitive, they need relatively healthy years from Mauer, Morneau, Span and Baker; another great year from Perkins and competence from Capps; and a return to excellence from Liriano. A lotta ifs. If Vegas put the over/under at 81, I think I'd bet the under.

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 4:35 PM by BR Secured User Highlight this comment 8

My sources (namely, myself) say it will be the FM site that wins out. They just have to make it look like they have exhausted all other options first.

Mary's Place and the Salvation Army will be relocated to the other side of downtown, just like business owners have wanted for years. Then the HERC will be moved and all will be "right" on the north side.

Nice post Rick!

Posted on January 24, 2012 at 10:33 PM by DreDogg Secured User Highlight this comment 9

Does anyone have a map outlining the area that covers the Metrodome land and the Star Tribune land that once was apart of a possible new Vikings stadium plan some years ago?

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 09:13 AM by Jeff Secured User Highlight this comment 10

Why on earth would ziggy ever approve of having this stadium being built where the metrodme...that's such a bad site..what a sell out...

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 10:49 AM by hanrolo Highlight this comment 11

I'm sure he doesn't want it on the dome site, but what choice does he have? We do things so ass backwards in this state it isn't even funny!

Instead of doing things right, we will cram another 30 year stadium in the dome site.

Senator Marty said he doesn't want to vote on it this year. Well when will you want to? You didn't last year, you don't this year, and next year will be a budget year, so you won't want to vote then either.

The only way to make the stadium go away is to finally take it on, and vote one way or another.

Either vote to get a stadium done, and keep the Vikings here, or vote no, and let them leave. Either way get something done. You were elected to solve complicated problems in our state, then do it.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 10:53 AM by Vikeologist Secured User Highlight this comment 12

As long as they do not cut vital programs and education to get it done!

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM by tk Secured User Highlight this comment 13

Easy, easy. Nobody is going to make the mistake of rebuilding on the Dome site.

You have to realize that nothing that gets said can be taken at face value. Words are chosen to get the desired reactions from people, nothing else.

It may seem like a glacial pace, but real progress is being made in all of this thrashing.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 11:46 AM by Rick Secured User 14

Well said Vikeologist! They are simply trying to avoid the issue and it's getting old. The Twins' and Gophers' stadium bills were passed in an election year in 2006, did the MN Political Empire come crashing down in the 2006 elections? I don't think so...

Whether you are for or against the stadium, at least vote on it so we can move forward one way or another instead of pushing the issue to the side each and every year.

The cost is only going higher and higher with each passing year.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:33 PM by Mike (aka Mike) Highlight this comment 15

Let's not forget that the Dem controlled the legislature in 2006 and we had a republican governor at the time as well. Different political climate at the time.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:39 PM by moda Secured User Highlight this comment 16

If the Vikings are actually serious about moving (I don't think they are) then they'd have to get their butts in gear. They have until 2/15 to declare that they're moving. That's 3 weeks. You actually think they'll have a plan in place for LA or anywhere else in 3 weeks? Me neither.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:40 PM by GoAUpher Secured User Highlight this comment 17

Mike~
You can't compare to 2006. The ideological factions in the current Legislature are WAY different. It's just not the same players on the field.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:41 PM by GoAUpher Secured User Highlight this comment 18

I wouldn't worry much about John Marty wanting to vote or not vote. He ultimately is a very peripheral player who doesn't want to vote because he doesn't think it's anything the state or other public bodies ought to be involved with due to a variety of philisophical beliefs. When it comes time to vote, he'll vote no as always.

The big deal right now is to first come up with something that can actually be voted upon and then make sure it has the votes to pass. If it doesn't have the votes to pass, then don't have a vote because a "no" victory will mess things up worse than not voting at all.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:43 PM by Jorge Secured User Highlight this comment 19

Just exactly who is avoiding the issue? It's all anybody is talking about at the Capitol and the media right now.

I know it's frustrating when it seems like everybody is just talking, but that is what legislators get paid to do, like it or not. Legislators don't get paid to vote, they get paid to come up with ideas, evaluate ideas, negotiate, wrangle, argue, grandstand, etc. Voting is just the culmination of everything else.

And, when somebody says that they don't want to vote on something, you have to listen beyond the words. They hardly ever actually mean what the words might lead you to think they mean.

I feel like I'm teaching a civics class here. If you want something that only a political body can provide, you've got to learn how it works. You've got to learn the code.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:51 PM by Rick Secured User 20

If the Vikings are actually serious about moving (I don't think they are) then they'd have to get their butts in gear. They have until 2/15 to declare that they're moving. That's 3 weeks. You actually think they'll have a plan in place for LA or anywhere else in 3 weeks? Me neither.

The NFL has already stated there will be no NFL team in LA in 2012 because the stadium situation out there, while more advanced than here, isn't settled enough for anyone to be certain that a stadium will be built. The league doesn't want any team going there, having the stadium fail, and then getting stuck indefinitely at the Coliseum or the Rose Bowl. There aren't any other viable potential NFL markets. So the Vikes will be back in 2012.

Now 2013 is another matter because Farmers Field in downtown LA may have a clear enough path for construction that the NFL would to give a team the green light to go there and play temporarily at the Rose Bowl.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:53 PM by Jorge Secured User Highlight this comment 21

Amen, Jorge.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:53 PM by Rick Secured User 22

The Vikings aren't going anywhere, Zygi wants to chisel the taxpayers out of a new stadium so he can reap an incredibly obscene reward but, when push comes to shove, he will settle for just plain obscene.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 12:57 PM by Ben Highlight this comment 23

The one thing I remember about the Twins debate is that it seemed the most extreme elements of both the left (schools will be closed if a ballpark is built)and the right (any tax is evil in and of itself)joined forces in opposition. It remained for the more moderate elements of both parties to forge an agreement.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 2:44 PM by terry Highlight this comment 24

Ben- How far down the obscene ladder is "plain obscene" from "incredibly obscene"? Perhaps a Vikings/Wilf themed infographic to keep us informed?

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 4:35 PM by Jared Secured User Highlight this comment 25

I should add, not a dig, I just want to make sure that it is enough steps down that I can accept the stadium debate resolution.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 4:37 PM by Jared Secured User Highlight this comment 26

Jared ---

I think the spread is about the same as between "awesome" and "somewhat awesome".

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM by Ben Highlight this comment 27

Too bad he wouldn't settle for just the "incredible reward"...

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM by F_T_K Secured User Highlight this comment 28

He will. A great deal of money is the bird in the bag.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 6:46 PM by Ben Highlight this comment 29

And the vote won't take place until the bill's authors know it will pass. Until then, it's all talking, arguing, discussing, studying, blah blah blah. The bill will be on life support a few more times before it is revived and passed. Lanning and RT are already going rounds about the Target Center being a part of it. So if Mpls says f-it we're not going to pay anything, that opens the door for Opat to bring money on the condition that it's built on the FM site. Rick's crystal ball said it best.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 8:47 PM by kevin in az Secured User Highlight this comment 30

Back to the Twins for a second....I like Rick's analysis, but at the end of the day I think we will hit better (less injuries, Nishy not getting nearly as many at bats, Span having a better year. Not convinced Valencia is the ultimate answer at 3rd however). I think we will field better (less Nishy, Revere instead of Delmon, M&M boys are both great defensively and regardless of their bats will be upgrades).

I'm not seeing anything that tells me we will pitch better. Blackburn will have two games with 22 great ground ball outs, but then get hammered for a month. Liriano is 34-37 since his surgery four years ago. Pavano is a year older. Baker is the only one I might have some hope for, and he has to come back from injury. Marquis is journeyman material.

In any season, the bullpen wins about 1/3 of the games. So, if we were going for 90 wins, our starters need 60. Even if I give Baker 15 wins (a total stretch), I don't know where the other 45 come from. I do think between Dunsing and Perkins we have a reasonable 7th and 8th inning. Who knows about Capps. He'll probably be fine, but he's not in the Nathan/Aggie/Reardon category that is for sure.

This won't be the disaster of last year, but I can't get to 82 wins. This feels like a sub .500 team to me, and given our empty farm system right now at least in Rochester, I think we might have to get used to that for a couple of years.

Posted on January 25, 2012 at 10:28 PM by Lincster Secured User Highlight this comment 31

Back in 1979 when plans were underway to construct the Metrodome, what other sites were being considered at that time before deciding on the current downtown east location?

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 10:22 AM by Mike (aka Mike) Highlight this comment 32

LOL ben... Nicely played....

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 11:11 AM by moda Secured User Highlight this comment 33

I don't remember other sites being seriously considered in the late '70's. There were the "Save the Met" folks and the mayor of Bloomington who wanted the stadium to stay where it was, but I don't remember much in the way of proposals by them for upgrading the Met and paying for those upgrades. I'll defer to the "Save the Met" alums on that. The Vikings' needs in '79 were greater than the Twins for the same reason that the Twins' needs were greater than the Vikings in 2009; the stadium they were in was built for the other sport. I personally favored a separate football stadium near the Met, akin to the KC complex. There was no political will in the legislature to do that however. Instead they built on the cheap and we all know how that turned out.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 11:46 AM by terry Highlight this comment 34

I feel like I'm teaching a civics class here. If you want something that only a political body can provide, you've got to learn how it works. You've got to learn the code.

In a way, you are. Too many folks want politics to be a certain way or expect it to be a certain way. What that means to them depends on the lense they use to view the world (idealistic, cynical, Dem, Repub, etc). What most people struggle with is that in the the end passing a bill this contentious is a giant puzzle. What political pieces do you need to fit together in order to provide a road to passage. That's easy enough to understand until it contradicts how people want the process to work or how they think it should work. Or perhaps more frequently, until their fandom comes into conflict with strongly held political beliefs (e.g. when the outcome of their "no new taxes" or "no public funding for stadiums" comes into conflict with "I'm a Vikings fan who doesn't want to lose my team").

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 11:50 AM by GoAUpher Secured User Highlight this comment 35

Mike,

The Industry Square (Metrodome) site beat out a site in the warehouse district where the A ramp now stands (adjacent to TF). It would have been a concrete donut (with a fixed, non-inflatable dome) surrounded by a massive parking ramp:


For reference, the blocks seen at the top of this diagram currently contain, from left to right, Target Field, Target Plaza, and Target Center

(The image above was scanned from Amy Klobuchar's great book, Uncovering the Dome.)

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 11:56 AM by Rick Secured User 36

The best thing people can do to understand the process at work here is to imagine themselves as a legislator -- and not a dictator, mind you -- but one of 201 people who are assembled, each advocating for his or her own preferred solution.

Then ask the tough questions: "What would I say and who would I say it to? Who else would have to agree? How would I talk to people who disagree? How much would I be willing to compromise? Is what I think I want really best for the people I represent? How do I prioritize my own pet project against all of the other pressing issues?"

Frankly, I don't know why anyone would want to be a legislator. It sounds like a whole bunch of work that, no matter how well you do it, half the people will hate you for when it's all done. (And the hours and the pay stink, too.)

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 12:06 PM by Rick Secured User 37

Mike,

I remember Coon Rapids touting a site and somewhere they made a drawing of an 80,000 seat domed stadium in the middle of nowhere with a huge parking lot, much like the Pontiac Silverdome at the time. I remember one idea of building a wall around the existing Met and putting a roof over it - sort of like how the Astrodome was constructed.

So many of us think the Metrodome is an eyesore on the Mpls skyline, can you imagine if that warehouse district dome became reality? YUCK! The 1970's were good for some things, architecture was not one of them.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 12:14 PM by kevin in az Secured User Highlight this comment 38

Over at MinnPost, Doug Grow interviews a few folks who have interesting things to say, including this:

Many believe that Opat, who put together the Target Field funding mechanism, and the Hennepin County Board still are the key to any stadium deal.

One state senator, Linda Higgins, DFL-Minneapolis, suggested that the board might be able to "adjust" upward the sales tax used to fund the baseball park to help pay for a football stadium.

That "adjustment" might not need legislative approval, Higgins said.

(Emphasis mine.)

When you start to read things like that, you know that people have their thinking caps on, and wheels are surely turning...

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 1:07 PM by Rick Secured User 39

do you think thre is any chance in hell the stadium will be eliminating the retractable or roof to save money and get it done..wasnt that the reason target field is open? does it even save any money at all or is there a chance that would ever happen.....rick?

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 5:43 PM by hansrolo Secured User Highlight this comment 40

The new Vikings stadium will have a fixed roof.

There's no political will to build anything retractable (which would be used for only 4 or 5 games a year), and it would be equally foolish to build an open-air facility. I don't think there's anyone out there still advocating for either retractable or open-air.

Target Field has no roof because baseball is meant to be played outdoors. Well, that and the fact that the site is too small to fit one onto, and nobody wanted to wait around to scrape up the extra $150M it would have taken.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 5:52 PM by Rick Secured User 41

I think the only way the roof will be retractable is if Zigi agrees to pay for it as an "upgrade"

So, fixed it is.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 5:57 PM by Dodgeboy Highlight this comment 42

"That "adjustment" might not need legislative approval, Higgins said. (Emphasis mine.)"

I was wondering about this. Does the TF bill mandate the .15% amount or did Hennepin Co pick that number for their own needs? Could they simply change the rate?

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 6:06 PM by Dodgeboy Highlight this comment 43

The minnesota ballpark authority just redid their website and if you want to poke around a bit you might find the answer to the .15 question and a few others but it takes time to go through all those documents on the site.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 6:53 PM by Leroy Highlight this comment 44

A retractable roof is pointless. It should be called a moon roof anyway. Putting a glass roof on a stadium would do the same thing. Until technology can provide a roof that can disappear to actually look like an outdoor stadium, stadiums need to forget about them.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 7:41 PM by FD Secured User Highlight this comment 45

All of these Viking stadium stories in the news are bringing back bad memories of the Twins debates nearly a decade ago. We're approaching 6 years since the Legislature voted to approve a new ballpark for the Minnesota Twins. To this day, I remain shocked and dumbfounded that this event (Legislative approval) actually occurred within the borders of the state of Minnesota. When I walk through the gates of Target Field, I still do a double-take that the place actually exists.

Is it this painful everywhere, or just here?

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM by Jeff T. Highlight this comment 46

It's painful everywhere Jeff but the pain doesn't last for 10 years like it does up there. Leaders in most other areas are able to hammer out things much faster than MN. MN has so many layers of bullshit to get through just to re-pave a road. Many other states allow local municipalities and counties the ability to levy taxes and spend as they wish on large projects without a public referendum. In MN it seems the state legislature has all the power and all the say.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 8:32 PM by kevin in az Secured User Highlight this comment 47

I don't think MN is unique at all - whether it's TF, or pending football stadium, I think both processes fit right in with the average 'conception-to-completion' time. I seem to recall an epic battle to get the new Mile High Stadium built in Denver, and they're just now honing in on definitive plans to build a new stadium for the 49ers after about 15 years of haggling.

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 8:48 PM by Expectorate Secured User Highlight this comment 48

It looks like the Twins will be retiring TK's #10 this year!

Posted on January 26, 2012 at 10:26 PM by Mike Highlight this comment 49

I, for one, am advocating for an open-air stadium. Of course, my opinion doesn't really count.

Open-air, shaped like a long ship, with a Scandanavian History Museum attached. A man can dream, right?

In the immortal words of one Robert Plant: "Valhalla, I am coming!"

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 10:27 AM by DreDogg Secured User Highlight this comment 50

Jeebus Rick. That warehouse district dome looks like they took the general design of the Astrodome and managed to make it worse. Makes me think we all got lucky with the Dome we did end up with (never thought that was possible).

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 11:06 AM by GoAUpher Secured User Highlight this comment 51

In my opinion the legislature has had about what 8 months to work on this and only 3 total weeks of in session time. the idea that they've had years to work on this is ridiculous. There has never been anything presented to them to actually work on. Not until just recently anyway.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 1:51 PM by moda Secured User Highlight this comment 52

Hey Rick....can you explain how.electronic pull tabs would bring in more money?
I mean won't it cost money to make all the gaming modules...and I heard them say cause it would attract more young people...I'm in college and we had a debate about this and the majority of us thoughy it was a joke..we don't play pull tabs much now why would we with this? And in this economy why would they go on record sayin that..why would they want to see more people get turned on too gambling? Am I missing something wrong here?

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 1:55 PM by hanrolo Secured User Highlight this comment 53

Although the legislature hasn't had any concrete ideas presented to it, anytime the Vikings Stadium issue has come up, its members have practically sprinted away from any meaningful engagement.

"Minnesota has more important things to deal with".

"We need to pass budget first".

"We need to pass the bonding bill first".

"We need to pass K-12 Education first".

"We need to pass the transportation bill first".

"The Vikings need to get in line behind the Twins".

"The Vikings need to get in line behind the Gophers".

"We won't even consider a stadium given the economic climate".

"A stadium has no chance this year".

"No one's interested in discussing it during an election year".

"We don't publicly subsidize Lars and Betty Dahlstrom's bait shop on County Road 17. Why should the Vikings be different?"

"The Metrodome is fine".

Pick your reason.

I know I'm oversimplifying things and the team has certainly made numerous cardinal errors in this process, but it's not as if the Vikings never came to the capitol looking to discuss a stadium until now.

Many of the above issues were and are much more important. What I, and others, get frustrated with is when those other issues are used as a means not only to not discuss the stadium at all in the present, but indefinitely delay any future discussions. The Vikings stadium issue was put off numerous times because I ultimately think the legislature, or at least certain members, would somehow hope the problem will just magically disappear so they can be spared from making any difficult decisions, pro or con. That's not going to happen and never was.

Eventually some sort of final decision will have to be made. If that decision is to build, then the delays have needlessly cost the public hundreds of millions of dollars.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 2:25 PM by Jorge Secured User Highlight this comment 54

But what have they given the state to work on until recently? Keep also in mind that we've switched poles in both the legislature and the governor. The first time they came with a proposal was the last two weeks of the session which was ridiculous. Now they are getting attention right away. Not sure what there is to complain about unless it is directed squarely at Zygi.

I guess we can complain that government moves too slow but that's not isolated to stadium issues.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 2:59 PM by moda Secured User Highlight this comment 55

hanrolo,

The gambling debate is pretty old, but it seems like every time a stadium gets discussed it gets dredged up again.

Frankly, I'm not exactly sure just how or if electronic pulltabs would raise more money than regular pulltabs. Here's a primer on the issue from the Strib last fall which offers basically the explanation you heard: some combination of expansion of their use, easier form factor, and younger people playing.

I don't really buy it either.

I know that the Governor is on record as supporting gambling revenue for the stadium, but it's hard to imagine that ever getting through the Legislature in any form. There are too many forces in too many ideological corners which are against it. Maybe a Vikings-themed scratch-off game, but probably not much more. It's a regressive, albeit voluntary, tax with very great costs.

The reality is that they're probably going to have to create or raise a different kind of tax somewhere for the State's portion, and that makes passage in 2012 almost impossible.

The best course of action for those who want a new Vikings stadium this year would be to find the nearest "Tea Party" legislator and explain that taxes, in and of themselves, are not the enemy. Sometimes they pay for things that many people want and/or need.

(While you're at it, explain to them that the original Boston Tea Partiers were not protesting taxation per se, but rather a lack of representation in taxation decisions. Well, that, and the fact that their taxes were going directly to pay the salaries of British stooges in colonial government. The reference would be laughable were it not for the American public's overall cluelessness about their own history, and the concerted, frightening, and wildly-successful effort on the part of a few super-rich people to manipulate that.)

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 4:47 PM by Rick Secured User 56

geeze Rick I so badly want to post the last two paragraphs of your last post on my Facebook page. Quite well explained.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 4:57 PM by moda Secured User Highlight this comment 57

An embarrassing % of "Americans" can't count to eleven or spell "dog" - history would be way too much to expect.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 5:25 PM by Ben Highlight this comment 58

It's odd that we are so bad with history. It doesn't change. learn it and then you know it.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 5:31 PM by moda Secured User Highlight this comment 59

Actually --- it does change, and is under pretty constant study for the purpose of identifying changes that need to be made.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 6:03 PM by Ben Highlight this comment 60

One cannot explain anything to a teabagger. Good luck with that!

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 6:13 PM by kevin in az Secured User Highlight this comment 61

I tend to scratch my head when I hear folks say nix to increased gambling options because it will lead to more problem gambling. We’re awash in gambling options now; how will electronic pull tabs or purple and gold scratch tickets lead more people down the path of self-destruction? Are they waiting for dedicated gaming before they take that fatal plunge? We’ve got casinos everywhere. We’ve got scratch games. We’ve got pull tabs. We’ve got lottery games galore. We’ve still got horse racing. Isn’t there also a dog track somewhere in the state as well? We’ve got that guy at work that always runs a Super Bowl board. In spring, he runs an NCAA bracket board. If someone’s going to succumb to the lure of easy money, he’s already passing up plenty of chances.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 6:46 PM by Winona Mike Highlight this comment 62

Jorge,

I see the timing of this ramp up of the discussion as being related primarily to two factors:

1. The Lease
2. The Lease

In the first case, it's the actual expiration of the existing lease. There has been a sense all along that the team agreed to 30 years when they demanded that the new facility be built, the facility was designed and built to their specifications (at the expense of the other tenants), and they should honor that.

In the second case, it's the sweetheart deal which the Vikings have enjoyed (and the Twins did not) at the Metrodome since the very beginning. Because of the various revenue streams they have commanded, and the pittance they have had to pay in, they have never been able to credibly claim that they were not making money at the Metrodome, only that they weren't making as much as other teams with newer amenities. Big difference there.

This is also very different from the Twins, who were, in fact, losing money at one point, even with big crowds, until Carl Pohlad used his banking skills to (impressively but depressingly) create real profit from a horrible team and small crowds (the mid-to-late 1990s).

The other piece of the timing, believe it or not, has to do with the recognition over the past 20 years or so that a stadium just doesn't work in that part of downtown. In the recent words of Mike Opat, it's "bad urban planning."

This is just one way you can be sure that a new stadium on the Dome site is a complete non-starter. It's not going to happen.

If there's a fourth factor, it's recovery from the stadium fatigue which set in when the Gophers and Twins got theirs. After all those battles, nobody wanted to work on another stadium for a long time. Now enough time has passed that there are new faces and new energy.

It'll get done this time, pretty much right on schedule.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 9:27 PM by Rick Secured User 63

It's a good point, Ben. Most "history" is a malleable fiction.

Facts just aren't what they used to be.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 9:32 PM by Rick Secured User 64

I am kind of enjoying watching the Timberwolves.

Posted on January 27, 2012 at 9:54 PM by Jeff T. Highlight this comment 65

Hey, we're reaching new levels of absurdity:

Meanwhile, talk emerged Friday of another possible site option that would make discussions about moving to TCF moot. Vikings vice president of stadium development Lester Bagley and Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission chairman Ted Mondale said they've been looking at acreage just southeast of the Dome, between 11th Avenue S. and Interstate 35W. Bagley said that the location would be ideal but that buildings on the site might be difficult to relocate.

Yes, let's go even farther from all the infrastructure! (At least it's obvious what the Vikings want: exclusive parking revenue.)

And then there's this:

Bagley stopped short Friday of saying the team would insist on alcohol sales at (TCF Bank) stadium, and a National Football League spokesman said the decision would be left to the team.

Hey! Come on out into the freeze-your-a$$-off cold and watch a sh!tty team while completely sober!

You couldn't make this stuff up.

Posted on January 28, 2012 at 01:30 AM by Rick Secured User 66

Rick-

You must have some finacial interest in the farmers market site, since you dislike every other idea that is brought up.

Posted on January 28, 2012 at 02:26 AM by Duffman Secured User Highlight this comment 67

Dislike? Did I say that I dislike the idea?

I did not. And I don't. And I have no financial interest in any land beyond my own little south Minneapolis plot.

But when the ideas get progressively less likely, progressively more absurd, you have to call them out. That little plot of land has just about as much chance of becoming the Vikings' new home as either the Metrodome site or my own little south Minneapolis plot.

And the reason why it might be floated is patently obvious. It says to one and all: We want parking revenues!

Posted on January 28, 2012 at 02:57 AM by Rick Secured User 68

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The Delusional Hills of Arden

October 13, 2011 11:53 AM

Ah, Arden Hills. Where to begin?

I've generally stayed away from talking too much about the Vikings and their fantasy facility (and fantasy competence on the field too, for that matter), but it got interesting for baseball fans this week when a new idea for stadium development and management appeared on the scene. I'll get to the MEC (Minnesota Entertainment Commission) proposal in a bit. It's a very intriguing idea.

Continue reading this article


Overheard

September 30, 2011 2:02 AM

Overheard yesterday, high over Target Field:

Minny: Well, Paul, looks like the season is over.

Paul: Looks like it, Minny.

Minny: What'd you think?

Paul: (after a pause) We didn't get to shake hands very much.

Minny: True, true.

(Sound of cold wind blowing.)


Paul: Really I think I'd rather forget the whole thing.

Continue reading this article


The Final Nail

August 26, 2011 12:17 PM

Being in support of something does not necessarily mean you will be happy if it happens.

A whole lot of people -- columnists, analysts, bloggers, pundits, fans -- thought the honorable thing to do, with the Twins out of contention, would be to move Jim Thome and give him a final chance at winning a title. I can't speak for anyone else, but the news that he's leaving the Twins is just about the saddest thing I could have heard, despite knowing it was coming, and even despite knowing it was the right thing to do.

Continue reading this article


Magic, Indeed

August 23, 2011 11:19 PM

Setting aside the score, the listless play of the hometown nine, and the hot, muggy, buggy conditions, there was some definite magic at work at the old ballpark tonight:

From umpire Brian Knight, to catcher Matt Weiters, to pitcher Alfredo Simon, to the bat of Trevor Plouffe, to Noah's glove (with an assist going to the first base ball girl).

Continue reading this article


Earlier Articles




"I love baseball so goddamn much --
it's like a dessert."

– Calvin Griffith

Explore the Site

Here are 50 images chosen randomly from the 2907 found on this site. Click the image to be taken to the original post. A new list is created every 10 minutes.


Ticket window at Gate 29/Carew



Most of the main concourse is filled with construction materials...



8:32 PM The glare is gone. Elapsed time: 1 hour (approximately 3 innings).



Location for automated ticket machines



Auxiliary scoreboard (note to TF principles: this is a very good idea)






Special guests in the trees!



These guys were there, but it wasn't any of you, right?



A slightly different angle, and you can see some of the structural elements.



Panels arriving on flatbed trailers in front of the Twins' dugout.



The HERC promenade side.









Work in progress to improve the streetscape on Second Avenue



A true fan out in the bleachers



This view clearly shows the curve in the left field stands and the relationship of the first row with the playing field (no overhang to speak of in left).












Twins president Dave St. Peter presents his list of fan suggestions to the Ballpark Authority



From the best seat in the house (Section 8, Row A), the right field corner is blocked. (No one may care. Fine with me. People should know.)



The completed promenade



A few weeks ago there were sand volleyball courts here. When the park opens, this will be surface parking. Maybe one day there will be something more interesting built on top of that parking...



Standing, standing, standing.












TC meets the Mayor (Photo by Jeff Ewer)



Town Ball Tavern balcony



Detail at Gate 6



A closer look at the louvers



This little item stands just to the south of the site, where the volleyball courts used to be. It has to be related to exterior finishing elements, which means this is the first glimpse of the actual stone to be used. Very buttery.



Security cones?






The Overlook



This is the staircase (ramp?) leading up to the trapezoid. Nice flagpole too. You'll be able to find me and Ben McEvers at the base of that flagpole on opening day in 2010!






The first pitch.












We'll be packed into the first five rows of section 136. Hey, Wilson! I'm bringing my glove!









The view out Gate 6 "Oliva".



OK, people are definitely riding their bikes to games! (Photo by Tim Davis, courtesy MBA)



The restaurant.



I see an opportunity in this view for an Abbey Road-style promotional photo! Mauer, Morneau, Nathan and Cuddyer walking toward the ballpark. The only question: which one takes off his cleats?



Another classic space in the making above the Hrbek gate.



Don Swanson, left, in-coming commander of the Richfield American Legion, and Joe Kennedy, right, out-going commander, are pictured with the Legion's new flag pole, which once stood at old Metropolitan Stadium. (Click to enlarge.)


Glossary

BPM - Ballpark Magic

BRT - Bus Rapid Transit

DSP - Dave St. Peter

FSE - Full Season Equivalent

FYS - Fake Yankee Stadium (see also: NYS)

HERC - Hennepin Energy Resource Company (aka the Garbage Burner)

HPB - Home Plate Box

HRP - Home Run Porch

LC - Legends Club

LRT - Light Rail Transit

MBA - Minnesota Ballpark Authority (will own Target Field)

MOA - Mall of America

MSFC - Minnesota Sports Facilities Commission (owns the Metrodome)

NYS - New Yankee Stadium

SRO - Standing Room Only

STH - Season Ticket Holder

TCFBS - TCF Bank Stadium

TF - Target Field

Selected Bibliography - Analysis
 


(1993)
 


First Edition (1992)
 


Second Edition (2006)
 


(2008)
 

Selected Bibliography - Surveys
 


(1975)
 


Second Edition (1987)
 


Not a "Third Edition" exactly,
but it replaced the above title
(2000)
 


(2000, large coffee table)
 


Original edition (2000, round)
 


Revised edition (2006, round)
 


(2001, medium coffee table)
 


(2002, small coffee table)
 


(2003, medium coffee table)
 


(2004, very large coffee table)
 


(2006, very large coffee table)
 


Combines the previous two titles
(2007, medium coffee table)
 

Selected Bibliography - Nostalgia
 


(1992)
 


Book and six ballpark miniatures
(2004)
 

Complete Bibliography

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